文献出处 当代财经, Contemporary Finance & Economics,
期刊荣誉：中文核心期刊要目总览  ASPT来源刊  CJFD收录刊
关键词 美中贸易收支; 人民币汇率; 单位根检验; 协整检验;
英文关键词 U.S.-China trade balance; RMB s exchange rate; unit root test; cointegration test.;
摘要 针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。
英文摘要 As to the relationship between U.S.-China trade balance and RMB s exchange rate, this study shows that it is uncertain whether the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance or not, and it is impossible to resolve U.S.-China trade deficit, depending only on the movement of RMB s exchange rate. The annual data during 1994-2002 shows empirically that there is no stable relationship between U.S.-China trade balance and RMB s exchange rate (nominal or real exchange rate). The monthly data during 1998-2...

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